NDU projections for Friday 9/01

Pair       High        Low          Last      Chng  Rnge   %Chg Vty   MBI  DIF
ND-U   1590.50    1579.00    1583.00   -1.50   11.50  -0.09  0.73 113    1
Key Support and Resistance  Levels
S2        1578   S4     1573     S2 Prob   43.6    S4 Prob 17.9
R2        1589   R4     1596     R2 Prob   41.0    R4 Prob 20.5
Prj Lo   1564.07   Prob %  39.7  Prj Hi  1599.08  Prob %   35.9
Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS  IT OB       1592.80

Projected DIF Reversal Price   1579.50 Sell Prob% 37.5   Prob % Valid 50.0

MBI      113   DIF       1
Trading Bias: Neutral/mildly bearish but not inclined to act Friday. ST/IT OB RSI’s bullish but fading MBI.

SPU projections for Friday 9/01

Pair       High        Low          Last      Chng  Rnge   %Chg Vty   MBI  DIF
SP-U   1308.25    1303.00    1305.50    0.50    5.25   0.04  0.40 104   -1
Key Support and Resistance  Levels
S2        1303   S4     1300     S2 Prob   45.3    S4 Prob 20.4
R2        1308   R4     1311     R2 Prob   46.4    R4 Prob 17.7
Prj Lo   1298.38   Prob %  54.1  Prj Hi  1312.10  Prob %   60.8
Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS  ST OS       1292.50

Projected DIF Reversal Price   1307.00 Buy Prob%  51.6   Prob % Valid Buy 56.4

MBI      104   DIF      -1
Trading Bias: Neutral until afetr Labor Day. ST/OB basis  5 RSI/Slightly IT/OB basis 14. Neutral MBI – mildly negative Dif.

EURSUD projections for Friday 9/01

Pair High Low Last Change Range % Chg Vty
EURUSD 12880 12786 12810 -19 94 -0.15 0.73
Support and Resistance Levels
S1 12790 S2 12771 S3 12751 S4 12731 S2 Prob 46.2 S4 Prob 18.4
R1 12837 R2 12865 R3 12892 R4 12919 R2 Prob 48.9 R4 Prob 23.7
Prj Lo 12755 Prob % 72.6 Prj Hi 12858 Prob % 76.7
5D EMA 12811 20D EMA 0
Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS ST OS 12765
Projected DIF Reversal Price 12824 Buy Prob% 38.0 Prob % Valid Buy 70.4

Trading Bias: Neutral/bearish on rallies to PrH/R2 area. NFP could prompt a spike
which I would consider selling. Beware though of very thin markets after about 1030 ET.
Buy Watch Levels : S4???? Tentatively the SrL/S4 area might be considered.
Sell Watch Levels : PrH then R4.

Data/Events: NFP 0830. UoM CSI 0945. ISM 1000. All can move mkt but thinconditions after about 1030.

Forex Close Thursday Aug 31 + projections for Friday.

Pair    High    Low      Last    Change   Range    MBI  DIF
USDJPY 11748   11696    11732      13      52      109     1
EURUSD 12880   12786    12810     -19      94      100    -4
GBPUSD 19091   18995    19047       5      96      115     2
USDCHF 12348   12221    12308      23     127      100     1
USDCAD 11115   11040    11045     -57      75       83    -4

Pretty much “as expected” numbers out of US data and nothing relevant said by Trichet Thursday and despite a bit greater volatility in EURUSD and USDCHF things remained rather quiet overall. We start a new month Friday with a double whammy in the form of
US NFP at 0830 and an early bond market close ahead of the three day Labor Day weekend which marks the unoffical but real end of summer for forex traders. Consensus calls for 120-125m and a 4.7% unemployment rate. UoM CSI follows at 00945 and the ISM ind
ex release ends the data week at 1000. The balance of the day is apt to be rather thin as many desks will empty out at the NY noon hour.

Pair       NY Last    5RSI      14RSI    5EMA   20EMA   PrjLow  PrjHi
USDJPY     11732       68         60     11702  11636   11681   11783
EURUSD     12810       74         60     12811  12796   12755   12858
GBPUSD     19047       95         60     18996  18900   18978   19112
USDCHF     12308       20         38     12314  12330   12243   12380
USDCAD     11045       29         30     11085  11162   10996   11084

Index close and SPU/NDU projections

Pair    High    Low      Last    Change   Range    MBI  DIF
SP-U   1308.75 1303.75  1305.00     0       5      105     0
ND-U   1585.25 1572.75  1584.50     9      13      115     5

Pair       High        Low          Last      Chng  Rnge   %Chg Vty   MBI  DIF
SP-U   1308.75    1303.75    1305.00    0.00    5.00   0.00  0.38 105    0
Key Support and Resistance  Levels
S2        1303   S4     1301     S2 Prob   45.6    S4 Prob 20.6
R2        1308   R4     1311     R2 Prob   46.1    R4 Prob 17.8
Prj Lo   1297.87   Prob %  54.4  Prj Hi  1311.61  Prob %   61.1
Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS  None           0.00

Projected DIF Reversal Price   1304.50 Sell Prob% 48.1   Prob % Valid 59.8

MBI      105   DIF       0
Trading Bias: Neutral. May consider a buy on a sharp post NFP or Bernanke`speech `reaction. Otherwise stand aside until next Tuesday.

Pair       High        Low          Last      Chng  Rnge   %Chg Vty   MBI  DIF
ND-U   1585.25    1572.75    1584.50    8.50   12.50   0.54  0.79 115    5
Key Support and Resistance  Levels
S2        1576   S4     1568     S2 Prob   44.2    S4 Prob 18.2
R2        1589   R4     1593     R2 Prob   40.3    R4 Prob 20.8
Prj Lo   1565.41   Prob %  40.3  Prj Hi  1600.68  Prob %   36.4
Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS  IT OB       1588.32

Projected DIF Reversal Price   1580.50 Sell Prob% 36.2   Prob % Valid 52.9

MBI      115   DIF       5
Trading Bias: ST/IT OB basis 5/14 RSI’s. Favor the sell side above Prj IT/OB MBI at 1588.50 or higher to R4 area today.

Thursday EURUSD projections

EURUSD Key Support and Resistance Levels
S2 12813 S4 12797 S2 Prob 42.5 S4 Prob 13.9
R2 12849 R4 12869 R2 Prob 43.6 R4 Prob 18.4
Prj Lo 12774 Prob % 66.9 Prj Hi 12877 Prob % 69.9
Projected DIF Reversal Price 12813 Sell Prob% 60.4 Prob % Valid 50.0

MBI 107 DIF 2

Trading Bias: Neutral/sell rallies to R4/PrH area if seen.
Buy Watch Levels : PrL/12751 range.
Sell Watch Levels :12855 then 12870/12880 range.

Data/Events: ECB @ 0745 then Trichet and NFP 0830. Chi PMI @ 1000 and Bernanke speaks 12300.

Wednesday forex close

Pair    High    Low      Last    Change   Range    MBI  DIF
USDJPY 11728   11655    11719      64      73      109     1
EURUSD 12853   12817    12829      -4      36      107     2
GBPUSD 19062   18972    19042      51      90      118     7
USDCHF 12309   12264    12285       4      45       94    -4
USDCAD 11117   11057    11102      26      60       89     0

Another rather listless and narrowly ranging session Wednesday but there is some
promise for more action Thursday. The ECB rate meeting and Trichet’s appearance
at 0830 ET ensure some better action in EURUSD today and with Chi PMI and factory
orders in the US at 1000 followed by Fed Chmn Bernanke at 1230 better action through
the NY session should be in order. Friday NFP at 0830 will at least start of the day
although an early bond mafrket close ahead of the long weekend guarantees NY
trading desks and activity will thin out noticeably beyond 1100 ET.
Pair       NY Last    5RSI      14RSI    5EMA   20EMA   PrjLow  PrjHi
USDJPY     11719       68         66     11687  11626   11668   11770
EURUSD     12829       65         53     12811  12794   12774   12877
GBPUSD     19042       73         57     18971  18884   18973   19107
USDCHF     12285       31         46     12317  12332   12220   12357
USDCAD     11102       39         33     11105  11174   11053   11141

Mid afternoon forex update

Pair    High    Low      Last   Change Range  %Chg  Vty
EURUSD 12844   12812    12828     -5     32   -0.04  0.25
USDJPY 11728   11682    11715     60     46    0.51  0.39
Market Commentary :
As of 1345 the range since 0600 has narrowed and trading has reverted to a very dull
and boring affair. Tomoorw promises to have the potential for a more interesting day
as we have a raft of EU12 & GER data as well as the ECB rate meeting and Trichet will
be speaking at 0830 where it is expeted he will signal the ECB’s intent for an Oct rate
hike. We say see. We follow that with weekly claims and PCE reports for the US at 0830
the Chi PMI and factory orders at 1000 and appearances by Bernanke at 1230. Friday is
of course NFP day as well as Nonmfg ISM and an early bond market close ahead of a
three day holiday weekend.

As expected 2Q GDP

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – U.S. real gross domestic product for the second quarter was revised to 2.9% annualized from the earlier estimate of 2.5%, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Final sales were revised to 2.3% growth from 2.1%. The revisions to the second-quarter GDP were largely due to higher investments in nonresidential structures, more inventory building and higher exports, offset by lower investments in housing. Growth in wages and salaries was revised nearly a third higher than the previous estimates. Key inflation data were revised marginally lower. Core prices increased 2.8%, down from 2.9% reported earlier. Corporate profits increased 3.2% quarter-to-quarter, down from the 12.6% increase in the first quarter. In the past year, before-tax profits are up 20.5%.

ADP Private Payrolls report:

The ADP estimate for private (non gov’t) payrolls rose 107K in August, not far from the 125K gain the consensus sees for total payrolls.  The index has shown some large monthly misses which have averaged 82K since the start of the public reporting in November.