SPZ/NDZ projections for Wed 11/01

 Pair       High        Low          Last      Chng  Rnge   %Chg Vty   MBI  DIF
SP-Z   1387.25    1377.00    1383.25    0.00   10.25   0.00  0.74 121   -7
Support and Resistance  Levels
S1   1380.50 S2  1377.75 S3  1375.00 S4  1372.25 S2 Prob   49.2  S4 Prob  22.6
R1   1385.63 R2  1388.00 R3  1390.38 R4  1392.75 R2 Prob   51.6  R4 Prob  23.4
Prj Lo   1376.74   Prob %  53.2  Prj Hi  1389.12  Prob %   58.9
5D EMA   1384.22     20D EMA   1372.48
Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS  IT OB       1384.89

Projected DIF Reversal Price   1388.25 Buy Prob%  48.2   Prob % Valid Buy 57.5

MBI      121   DIF      -7

Pair High Low Last Chng Rnge %Chg Vty MBI DIF
ND-Z 1749.75 1731.25 1742.75 6.00 18.50 0.34 1.06 117 0
Support and Resistance Levels
S1 1737.75 S2 1732.75 S3 1727.75 S4 1722.75 S2 Prob 44.6 S4 Prob 18.5
R1 1747.00 R2 1751.25 R3 1755.50 R4 1759.75 R2 Prob 49.2 R4 Prob 23.1
Prj Lo 1729.30 Prob % 35.4 Prj Hi 1753.04 Prob % 61.5
5D EMA 1738.37 20D EMA 1718.70
Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS IT OB 1748.20

Projected DIF Reversal Price 1742.25 Sell Prob% 45.5 Prob % Valid 40.0

MBI 117 DIF 0

Major Yen crosses – Wed. 11/01

USDJPY  High    Low      Last    Change   MBI    DIF
61026  11915   11827    11839      -59     93     -9
61027  11872   11716    11761      -78     86    -11
61030  11762   11721    11743      -18     88     -6
61031  11805   11664    11692      -51     84     -7
61101  11714   11657    11688       -4     85     -4

Support and Resistance  Levels
S1  11673  S2   11659  S3   11644  S4   11629  S2 Prob 43.9  S4 Prob 17.8
R1  11702  R2   11716  R3   11730  R4   11743  R2 Prob 41.1  R4 Prob 14.2
Prj Lo   11636 Prob %  43.9  Prj Hi 11738  Prob %  48.4
5D EMA   11742       20D EMA   11815

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS              IT OS     11670
Projected Daily Reversal Price           11706
Buy Prob(%)  42.9    Valid Buy Prob (%)   67.0

Trading Bias & Tactics : Badly ST/OS RSI and IT/OS MBI and RSI put me on the n/t bullish.

EURJPY High Low Last Change MBI DIF
61025 15017 14959 15013 25 114 8
61026 15048 14995 15024 11 119 8
61027 15075 14938 14979 -45 108 -3
61030 14972 14912 14945 -34 101 -7
61031 14979 14897 14926 -19 95 -9

Support and Resistance Levels
S1 14908 S2 14889 S3 14871 S4 14852 S2 Prob 44.3 S4 Prob 14.3
R1 14949 R2 14971 R3 14994 R4 15016 R2 Prob 46.5 R4 Prob 17.9
Prj Lo 14869 Prob % 40.3 Prj Hi 14977 Prob % 51.6
5D EMA 14959 20D EMA 14961

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS ST OS 14912
Projected Daily Reversal Price 14963
Buy Prob(%) 43.5 Valid Buy Prob (%) 71.9

Trading Bias & Tactics : Bullish n/t based on ST/OS RSI and Dif. Long on further
weakness below 14912 ST/OS and around S2 @ 14889.

Forex (Majors) closing Tues. and projections for 11/01

Pair         NY Last     5EMA       20EMA  MBI       Dif   PrjLow PrjHi
EURUSD     12766      12710      12649   118      6     12713   12816
USDJPY     11692      11769      11828    84     -7     11640   11742
EURJPY     14926      14959      14961    95     -9     14869   14977
USDCHF     12433      12504      12566    86     -8     12362   12509
GBPUSD     19078      18967      18829   136      9     19011   19142
USDCAD     11217      11236      11260    85     -3     11170   11256

Range projections for the next NY trading session until 1500 ET (2000 GMT)

EURUSD   Prj Lo  12713   Prob % 45.5     Prj Hi  12816   Prob %  51.1
USDJPY   Prj Lo  11640   Prob % 44.8     Prj Hi  11742   Prob %  48.4
EURJPY   Prj Lo  14869   Prob % 40.3     Prj Hi  14977   Prob %  51.6
USDCHF   Prj Lo  12362   Prob % 33.8     Prj Hi  12509   Prob %  28.1
GBPUSD   Prj Lo  19011   Prob % 35.8     Prj Hi  19142   Prob %  42.9
USDCAD   Prj Lo  11170   Prob % 44.2     Prj Hi  11256   Prob %  38.7

EURUSD projections for Wednesday 11/01

EURUSD  High    Low      Last    Change   MBI    DIF
61025  12622   12551    12613       47    100      3
61026  12702   12625    12691       78    108      7
61027  12750   12664    12734       43    114      8
61030  12740   12699    12728       -6    112      4
61031  12783   12679    12766       38    118      6

Support and Resistance  Levels
S1  12734  S2   12702  S3   12671  S4   12639  S2 Prob 44.1  S4 Prob 15.2
R1  12786  R2   12806  R3   12827  R4   12847  R2 Prob 48.6  R4 Prob 19.9
Prj Lo   12713 Prob %  45.5  Prj Hi 12816  Prob %  51.1
5D EMA   12710       20D EMA   12649

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS              IT OB     12786
Projected Daily Reversal Price           12747
Sell Prob(%)  55.2   Valid Sell Prob (%) 54.1

Trading Bias & Tactics : Bearish n/t based on IT/ST OB RSI’s and close to IT/OB
MBI. 12747 is a definite sell level on a downside reversal. On the upside 12806/S2
and 12816/PrH are good sale candidates if seen.
ADP nfp chg at 0815 and ISM mfg at 1000 are possible major mkt movers with
traders cautioun around 1300 when Bernanke speaks also in potential play.

SPZ/NDZ projections for Tues. 10/31

Pair       High        Low          Last      Chng  Rnge   %Chg Vty   MBI  DIF
SP-Z   1387.00    1378.75    1383.25   -1.50    8.25  -0.11  0.60 125   -6
Support and Resistance  Levels
S1   1381.13 S2  1379.00 S3  1376.88 S4  1374.75 S2 Prob   48.8  S4 Prob  22.8
R1   1385.25 R2  1387.25 R3  1389.25 R4  1391.25 R2 Prob   51.2  R4 Prob  23.6
Prj Lo   1376.74   Prob %  53.7  Prj Hi  1389.14  Prob %   59.3
5D EMA   1384.71     20D EMA   1371.35
Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS  IT OB       1383.25

Projected DIF Reversal Price   1389.25 Buy Prob%  48.2   Prob % Valid Buy 57.5

MBI      125   DIF      -6

Pair       High        Low          Last      Chng  Rnge   %Chg Vty   MBI  DIF
ND-Z   1745.75    1721.50    1736.75    5.25   24.25   0.30  1.40 111   -5
Support and Resistance  Levels
S1   1730.17 S2  1723.58 S3  1717.00 S4  1710.42 S2 Prob   45.3  S4 Prob  18.8
R1   1742.29 R2  1747.83 R3  1753.38 R4  1758.92 R2 Prob   48.4  R4 Prob  23.4
Prj Lo   1723.27   Prob %  35.9  Prj Hi  1747.09  Prob %   60.9
5D EMA   1736.18     20D EMA   1716.16
Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS  ST OS       1730.75

Projected DIF Reversal Price   1742.75 Buy Prob%  53.5   Prob % Valid Buy 43.5

MBI      111   DIF      -5

EURUSD projections for Tuesday 10/31

EURUSD  High    Low      Last    Change   MBI    DIF
61024  12576   12525    12566       13     94     -1
61025  12622   12551    12613       47    100      3
61026  12702   12625    12691       78    108      7
61027  12750   12664    12734       43    114      8
61030  12740   12699    12728       -6    112      4

Support and Resistance  Levels
S1  12716  S2   12705  S3   12693  S4   12681  S2 Prob 47.8  S4 Prob 23.6
R1  12737  R2   12746  R3   12755  R4   12763  R2 Prob 43.5  R4 Prob 20.8
Prj Lo   12675 Prob %  49.7  Prj Hi 12778  Prob %  45.2
5D EMA   12682       20D EMA   12637

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS              IT OB     12785
Projected Daily Reversal Price           12709
Sell Prob(%)  62.1   Valid Sell Prob (%) 53.7

Trading Bias & Tactics : Neutral/mildly bearish. A ST/OB 5RSI and close to IT/OB
14RSI are key factors in keeping me neutral/bearish. The failure to follow through
to any significant degree on last Thursday’s move back above 12700 also weighs.
A raft of E12 reportsbetween 0200 and 0500 including GER retail sales E12 CCI and
E12 CPI ahead of US ECI at 0830 and CCI and Chi PMI at 1000. None of the US data
is really first tier but the Chi PMI is sometimes a mkt mover. I would target a rally to
R4 – 12763 as a sale or reversal below 12709. In all however everything is a prelude
to Friday’s NFP and Thursday’s ECB meeting as well as the US ISM Wednesday.

Forex (Majors) closing Mon. and projections for 10/31

Pair         NY Last     5EMA       20EMA  MBI       Dif   PrjLow PrjHi
EURUSD     12728      12682      12637   112      4     12675   12778
USDJPY     11743      11808      11843    88     -6     11691   11793
EURJPY     14945      14975      14965   101     -7     14888   14996
USDCHF     12481      12539      12580    91     -7     12410   12557
GBPUSD     19018      18912      18802   131      8     18951   19082
USDCAD     11263      11245      11264    90      1     11216   11302

Range projections for the next NY trading session until 1500 ET (2000 GMT)

EURUSD   Prj Lo  12675   Prob % 49.7     Prj Hi  12778   Prob %  45.2
USDJPY   Prj Lo  11691   Prob % 43.3     Prj Hi  11793   Prob %  49.0
EURJPY   Prj Lo  14888   Prob % 45.1     Prj Hi  14996   Prob %  50.9
USDCHF   Prj Lo  12410   Prob % 31.0     Prj Hi  12557   Prob %  32.7
GBPUSD   Prj Lo  18951   Prob % 37.9     Prj Hi  19082   Prob %  40.2
USDCAD   Prj Lo  11216   Prob % 42.2     Prj Hi  11302   Prob %  39.6

SPZ/NDZ projections for Mon. 10/30

Pair High Low Last Chng Rnge %Chg Vty MBI DIF
SP-Z 1393.50 1381.00 1384.75 -8.25 12.50 -0.60 0.90 128 -7
Support and Resistance Levels
S1 1382.04 S2 1379.33 S3 1376.63 S4 1373.92 S2 Prob 48.4 S4 Prob 23.0
R1 1388.29 R2 1391.83 R3 1395.38 R4 1398.92 R2 Prob 51.6 R4 Prob 23.8
Prj Lo 1378.23 Prob % 54.1 Prj Hi 1390.66 Prob % 59.8
5D EMA 1385.44 20D EMA 1370.10
Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS IT OB 1384.75

Projected DIF Reversal Price 1391.75 Buy Prob% 48.2 Prob % Valid Buy 57.5

MBI 128 DIF -7

Pair       High        Low          Last      Chng  Rnge   %Chg Vty   MBI  DIF
ND-Z   1757.00    1722.25    1731.50  -21.50   34.75  -1.24  2.01 113   -5
Support and Resistance  Levels
S1   1724.17 S2  1716.83 S3  1709.50 S4  1702.17 S2 Prob   46.0  S4 Prob  19.0
R1   1741.54 R2  1751.58 R3  1761.63 R4  1771.67 R2 Prob   49.2  R4 Prob  23.8
Prj Lo   1718.04   Prob %  36.5  Prj Hi  1741.86  Prob %   60.3
5D EMA   1735.90     20D EMA   1713.99
Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS  IT OB       1750.55

Projected DIF Reversal Price   1738.00 Buy Prob%  52.4   Prob % Valid Buy 45.5

MBI      113   DIF      -5

Major Yen crosses – For Monday 10/30

EURJPY High Low Last Change MBI DIF
61023 14992 14951 14973 1 102 3
61024 15005 14967 14988 15 108 6
61025 15017 14959 15013 25 114 8
61026 15048 14995 15024 11 119 8
61027 15075 14938 14979 -45 108 -3

Support and Resistance Levels
S1 14949 S2 14920 S3 14890 S4 14860 S2 Prob 39.9 S4 Prob 18.7
R1 15018 R2 15057 R3 15096 R4 15134 R2 Prob 41.0 R4 Prob 21.2
Prj Lo 14922 Prob % 40.7 Prj Hi 15030 Prob % 51.3
5D EMA 14990 20D EMA 14967

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS ST OS 14941
Projected Daily Reversal Price 14992
Buy Prob(%) 47.9 Valid Buy Prob (%) 58.2

Trading Bias & Tactics : Neutral/leaning to buy further weakness Monday. Although DIF is mildly
bearish the reaction in all JPY crosses Friday was overdone in reaction ti old Watanabe remarks
re: carry trades. I would prefer buying in the S2/PrL range of 14920/14922 but also would risk
longs on an upside reversal at 14992 as this would recross 5 ema and swing both ema’s and
MBI/DIF back to bullish.

USDJPY High Low Last Change MBI DIF
61023 11938 11858 11929 67 110 4
61024 11958 11909 11928 -1 108 1
61025 11944 11889 11898 -30 101 -5
61026 11915 11827 11839 -59 93 -9
61027 11872 11716 11761 -78 86 -11

Support and Resistance Levels
S1 11728 S2 11694 S3 11661 S4 11627 S2 Prob 40.9 S4 Prob 18.2
R1 11806 R2 11850 R3 11895 R4 11939 R2 Prob 40.9 R4 Prob 17.0
Prj Lo 11708 Prob % 41.2 Prj Hi 11811 Prob % 50.0
5D EMA 11841 20D EMA 11853

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS I/ST OS 11737
Projected Daily Reversal Price 11939
Buy Prob(%) 45.7 Valid Buy Prob (%) 76.2

Trading Bias & Tactics : Neutral leaning toward buying any O/N weakness Sunday night
or Monday morning in the area of PrL. We closed ST/OS Friday basis 5RSI and DIF and
are borderline IT/OS basis MBI and close basis 14RSI. I/ST OS readings come in at
11737 or lower. Buy at or under this price.

EURUSD projections for Monday 10/30

EURUSD  High    Low      Last    Change   MBI    DIF
61023  12622   12537    12553      -67     93     -2
61024  12576   12525    12566       13     94     -1
61025  12622   12551    12613       47    100      3
61026  12702   12625    12691       78    108      7
61027  12750   12664    12734       43    114      8

Support and Resistance  Levels
S1  12708  S2   12682  S3   12656  S4   12630  S2 Prob 38.2  S4 Prob 13.8
R1  12751  R2   12768  R3   12785  R4   12802  R2 Prob 36.8  R4 Prob 16.9
Prj Lo   12681 Prob %  44.7  Prj Hi 12784  Prob %  46.1
5D EMA   12659       20D EMA   12627

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS              IT OB     12756
Projected Daily Reversal Price           12668
Sell Prob(%)  48.9   Valid Sell Prob (%) 55.9

Trading Bias & Tactics : Neutral. After four straight advances on news/data that had
been pretty well discounted I have to look for a correction as we are in very easy range
of going IT/OB Monday having closed ST/OB basis 5RSI Friday. With an R2 at 12768 and
PrH at 12784 these levels look good to take short positions for a reaction. On the downside
I think I would look at S2/PrL as a take profit level if we in fact see a move to the indicated
sale levels. Otherwise watch the downside reversal price of 12668 as a sale price.