Major Yen crosses – For Friday

USDJPY  High    Low      Last    Change   MBI    DIF
61124  11648   11564    11579      -42     80     -9
61127  11640   11539    11607       28     87     -1
61128  11640   11590    11616        9     88     -1
61129  11647   11559    11641       25     95      4
61130  11655   11552    11582      -59     88     -2

Support and Resistance  Levels
S1  11560  S2   11538  S3   11516  S4   11493  S2 Prob 42.3  S4 Prob 17.6
R1  11611  R2   11641  R3   11670  R4   11699  R2 Prob 46.5  R4 Prob 22.1
Prj Lo   11530 Prob %  46.8  Prj Hi 11632  Prob %  48.5
5D EMA   11619       20D EMA   11705

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS              IT OS     11562
Projected Daily Reversal Price           11602
Buy Prob(%)  44.7    Valid Buy Prob (%)   68.5

Trading Bias & Tactics : Approaching IT/ST OS again. Vulnerable to even minor data
disappointments. Data and fedspeak dominate Friday.

EURJPY  High    Low      Last    Change   MBI    DIF
61124  15162   15042    15167      121    103     -1
61127  15249   15185    15246       79    112      5
61128  15332   15232    15332       86    121      9
61129  15343   15253    15311      -21    118      4
61130  15346   15291    15335       24    116      1

Support and Resistance  Levels
S1  15319  S2   15302  S3   15286  S4   15269  S2 Prob 44.6  S4 Prob 21.9
R1  15346  R2   15357  R3   15368  R4   15379  R2 Prob 52.9  R4 Prob 19.4
Prj Lo   15278 Prob %  39.9  Prj Hi 15385  Prob %  54.0
5D EMA   15278       20D EMA   15153

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS              IT OB     15360
Projected Daily Reversal Price           15334
Sell Prob(%)  63.9   Valid Sell Prob (%) 60.6

Trading Bias & Tactics : ST/OB basis 5 RSI close to IT/OB basis MBI/14 RSI but difficult to think
of selling yet as USDJPY strength flows into the pair as does EURUSD stremgth.

EURUSD projections for Friday

EURUSD  High    Low      Last    Change   MBI    DIF
61124  13110   12941    13098      150    132      9
61127  13173   13086    13135       37    137      9
61128  13208   13121    13200       65    141      8
61129  13219   13131    13154      -46    128     -4
61130  13274   13133    13243       89    137      3

Support and Resistance  Levels
S1  13201  S2   13159  S3   13118  S4   13076  S2 Prob 46.4  S4 Prob 18.6
R1  13272  R2   13300  R3   13329  R4   13358  R2 Prob 47.8  R4 Prob 21.1
Prj Lo   13190 Prob %  46.4  Prj Hi 13293  Prob %  53.3
5D EMA   13150       20D EMA   12948

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS              IT OB     13243
Projected Daily Reversal Price           13242
Sell Prob(%)  60.0   Valid Sell Prob (%) 56.3

Trading Bias & Tactics : Neutral. Seriously IT/OB MBI and ST/IT OB RSI’s but this
isn’t about market imbalances it is all about momentum and an almost universal
USD bearishness. No thoughts on playing this as I am scared of intervention as a
possibility. Heavy data out of the US preceeded by GER/EU mfg. PMI and EU
unemployment rate. Bernanke speaks at 900 with Plosser (Phila Fed) at 930.
ISM mfg index/prices at 1000 and RichFed Pres Lacker at 1345.

Forex closing Thur & Fri. projections

Pair         NY Last     5EMA       20EMA  MBI       Dif   PrjLow PrjHi
EURUSD     13243      13150      12948   137      3     13190   13293
USDJPY     11582      11619      11705    88     -2     11530   11632
EURJPY     15335      15278      15153   116      1     15278   15385
USDCHF     11978      12076      12285    78     -4     11908   12053
GBPUSD     19659      19467      19184   135      6     19591   19723
USDCAD     11404      11377      11365   104      3     11358   11443

Index Futures for Friday

Pair       High        Low          Last      Chng  Rnge   %Chg Vty   MBI  DIF
ND-Z   1804.25    1783.50    1794.75   -1.00   20.75  -0.06  1.16 114   -3
Support and Resistance  Levels
S1   1789.42 S2  1784.08 S3  1778.75 S4  1773.42 S2 Prob   44.2  S4 Prob  16.3
R1   1799.79 R2  1804.83 R3  1809.88 R4  1814.92 R2 Prob   51.2  R4 Prob  23.3
Prj Lo   1781.04   Prob %  34.9  Prj Hi  1804.78  Prob %   57.0
5D EMA   1795.52     20D EMA   1781.56
Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS  IT OB       1800.20

Projected DIF Reversal Price   1800.25 Buy Prob%  50.0   Prob % Valid Buy 48.3

MBI      114   DIF      -3

Tweaking the Tigers Tail

Swiss get into a twist over carry trading craze

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Last Updated: 2:08am GMT 30/11/2006

Switzerland’s central bank has issued its bluntest warning to date that funds borrowing massively in Swiss francs for speculation worldwide could be in for a shock.

	Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth: issues stark warning

“Jean-Pierre Roth, the Swiss National Bank chairman, said “euphoria” had gripped the markets, blinding investors to the risks of monetary tightening.

“Currency traders thinking only of short-term profits are borrowing in countries with low interest rates to re-lend in high-yield states without any regard for the exchange risk,” he said.

“These are troubling signs and prudence is called for. It is dangerous to extrapolate trends and imagine that profits can continue to accelerate. We need to be on our guard because it is an illusion to think that past problems have disappeared. A little common sense would not go amiss,” he said.”

 

 

What could possibly go wrong?

Major Yen crosses – For Thursday

USDJPY High Low Last Change MBI DIF
61123 11682 11603 11621 -60 84 -9
61124 11648 11564 11579 -42 80 -9
61127 11640 11539 11607 28 87 -1
61128 11640 11590 11616 9 88 -1
61129 11647 11559 11641 25 95 4

Support and Resistance Levels
S1 11613 S2 11584 S3 11556 S4 11528 S2 Prob 43.7 S4 Prob 17.6
R1 11657 R2 11672 R3 11688 R4 11704 R2 Prob 41.5 R4 Prob 14.3
Prj Lo 11589 Prob % 43.7 Prj Hi 11691 Prob % 48.2
5D EMA 11638 20D EMA 11718

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS ST OB 11731
Projected Daily Reversal Price 11623
Sell Prob(%) 57.0 Valid Sell Prob (%) 51.7

Trading Bias & Tactics : Neutral. Still waiting for the other shoe to drop. Chi PMI
Thurs. or Bernanke/ISM combo Friday may tell the tale.

EURJPY High Low Last Change MBI DIF
61123 15133 15034 15046 -64 94 -9
61124 15162 15042 15167 121 103 -1
61127 15249 15185 15246 79 112 5
61128 15332 15232 15332 86 121 9
61129 15343 15253 15311 -21 118 4

Support and Resistance Levels
S1 15286 S2 15262 S3 15237 S4 15212 S2 Prob 38.1 S4 Prob 13.3
R1 15331 R2 15352 R3 15372 R4 15392 R2 Prob 50.7 R4 Prob 15.5
Prj Lo 15254 Prob % 37.1 Prj Hi 15361 Prob % 55.4
5D EMA 15249 20D EMA 15134

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS IT OB 15340
Projected Daily Reversal Price 15284
Sell Prob(%) 57.5 Valid Sell Prob (%) 45.5

Trading Bias & Tactics : Neutral. Small pullback constructive but I am still skeptical
over EZ complacency.

Forex (Majors) closing Wed. and projections for 11/30

Pair         NY Last     5EMA       20EMA  MBI       Dif   PrjLow PrjHi
EURUSD     13154      13104      12916   128     -4     13101   13204
USDJPY     11641      11638      11718    95      4     11589   11691
EURJPY     15311      15249      15134   118      4     15254   15361
USDCHF     12098      12124      12317    83      0     12028   12173
GBPUSD     19465      19372      19134   125     -1     19397   19529
USDCAD     11381      11364      11361    98     -1     11335   11420

Range projections for the next NY trading session until 1500 ET (2000 GMT)

EURUSD   Prj Lo  13101   Prob % 46.4     Prj Hi  13204   Prob %  52.8
USDJPY   Prj Lo  11589   Prob % 43.7     Prj Hi  11691   Prob %  48.2
EURJPY   Prj Lo  15254   Prob % 37.1     Prj Hi  15361   Prob %  55.4
USDCHF   Prj Lo  12028   Prob % 35.1     Prj Hi  12173   Prob %  29.5
GBPUSD   Prj Lo  19397   Prob % 36.2     Prj Hi  19529   Prob %  41.9
USDCAD   Prj Lo  11335   Prob % 42.0     Prj Hi  11420   Prob %  39.4

Thursday EURUSD projections

EURUSD  High    Low      Last    Change   MBI    DIF
61123  12975   12928    12948       13    121      3
61124  13110   12941    13098      150    132      9
61127  13173   13086    13135       37    137      9
61128  13208   13121    13200       65    141      8
61129  13219   13131    13154      -46    128     -4

Support and Resistance  Levels
S1  13136  S2   13117  S3   13099  S4   13080  S2 Prob 43.9  S4 Prob 16.4
R1  13180  R2   13205  R3   13231  R4   13256  R2 Prob 47.2  R4 Prob 20.8
Prj Lo   13101 Prob %  46.4  Prj Hi 13204  Prob %  52.8
5D EMA   13104       20D EMA   12916

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS              IT OB     13154
Projected Daily Reversal Price           13180
Buy Prob(%)  41.5    Valid Buy Prob (%)   68.2

Trading Bias & Tactics : Neutral/mildly bearish on rallies. GER unemployment and
EU/CCI & GDP ahead of NY opening. US UIC and PI/PE at 0830 Chi PMI at 1000 -
could move the mkt. Friday has a heavy EU calendar + fespeak from Bernanke/Plosser.
I am not convionced we’ve seen the top but from articles I’ve seen on EUR valuation I
expect “jawboning” and/or a ECB/BOJ “deal” to control EURJPY. ANother rally/failure at
13200 is sellable. Still IT/OB.

Index Futures for Thurs.

Pair       High        Low          Last      Chng  Rnge   %Chg Vty   MBI  DIF
SP-Z   1403.50    1388.50    1402.25   13.75   15.00   0.98  1.07 117    3
Support and Resistance  Levels
S1   1397.46 S2  1392.67 S3  1387.88 S4  1383.08 S2 Prob   48.6  S4 Prob  21.5
R1   1404.96 R2  1407.67 R3  1410.38 R4  1413.08 R2 Prob   51.4  R4 Prob  23.6
Prj Lo   1395.74   Prob %  50.0  Prj Hi  1407.99  Prob %   57.6
5D EMA   1397.03     20D EMA   1392.66
Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS  IT OB       1406.07

Projected DIF Reversal Price   1398.25 Sell Prob% 52.0   Prob % Valid 48.4

MBI      117   DIF       3

Pair       High        Low          Last      Chng  Rnge   %Chg Vty   MBI  DIF
ND-Z   1800.00    1782.25    1795.75   13.50   17.75   0.75  0.99 116   -2
Support and Resistance  Levels
S1   1790.54 S2  1785.33 S3  1780.13 S4  1774.92 S2 Prob   43.5  S4 Prob  16.5
R1   1799.42 R2  1803.08 R3  1806.75 R4  1810.42 R2 Prob   50.6  R4 Prob  23.5
Prj Lo   1782.01   Prob %  35.3  Prj Hi  1805.78  Prob %   57.6
5D EMA   1795.90     20D EMA   1780.17
Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS  IT OB       1802.28

Projected DIF Reversal Price   1802.25 Buy Prob%  49.1   Prob % Valid Buy 50.0

MBI      116   DIF      -2

Major Yen crosses – For Wednesday 11/29

USDJPY  High    Low      Last    Change   MBI    DIF
61122  11795   11638    11681     -107     88     -9
61123  11682   11603    11621      -60     84     -9
61124  11648   11564    11579      -42     80     -9
61127  11640   11539    11607       28     87     -1
61128  11640   11590    11616        9     88     -1

Support and Resistance  Levels
S1  11603  S2   11591  S3   11578  S4   11565  S2 Prob 43.4  S4 Prob 18.5
R1  11628  R2   11641  R3   11653  R4   11665  R2 Prob 45.7  R4 Prob 17.6
Prj Lo   11564 Prob %  44.5  Prj Hi 11666  Prob %  48.2
5D EMA   11637       20D EMA   11726

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS              IT OS     11596
Projected Daily Reversal Price           11617
Buy Prob(%)  45.0    Valid Buy Prob (%)   69.5

Trading Bias & Tactics : Faitly stable but dicey. No logical play barring a break either way.
Mkt sentiment says down so I look to be a buyer lower.

EURJPY  High    Low      Last    Change   MBI    DIF
61122  15150   15066    15110      -28    102     -6
61123  15133   15034    15046      -64     94     -9
61124  15162   15042    15167      121    103     -1
61127  15249   15185    15246       79    112      5
61128  15332   15232    15332       86    121      9

Support and Resistance  Levels
S1  15299  S2   15265  S3   15232  S4   15199  S2 Prob 44.0  S4 Prob 14.4
R1  15349  R2   15365  R3   15382  R4   15399  R2 Prob 46.2  R4 Prob 17.7
Prj Lo   15275 Prob %  40.1  Prj Hi 15382  Prob %  51.3
5D EMA   15218       20D EMA   15115

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS              I/ST OB   15363
Projected Daily Reversal Price           15301
Sell Prob(%)  56.7   Valid Sell Prob (%) 42.4

Trading Bias & Tactics : IT/ST OB basis RSI’s/MBI and almost there basis Dif. Need I say more?