EURUSD projections for Thursday

Pair    High    Low      Last    Change   Range  % Chg  Vty
EURUSD 12951   12898    12933        9      53    0.07  0.41
Support and Resistance  Levels
S1  12918  S2   12904  S3   12889  S4   12874  S2 Prob 43.9  S4 Prob 16.3
R1  12945  R2   12957  R3   12969  R4   12980  R2 Prob 47.1  R4 Prob 20.7
Prj Lo   12880 Prob %  46.3  Prj Hi 12982  Prob %  52.6
5D EMA   12937       20D EMA   13028
Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS  None            0
Projected DIF Reversal Price   12919   Sell Prob% 57.9   Prob % Valid 48.8

Pair    High    Low      Last    Change   Range  % Chg  Vty
USDJPY 12087   12034    12068        8      53    0.07  0.44
Support and Resistance  Levels
S1  12054  S2   12039  S3   12025  S4   12010  S2 Prob 43.4  S4 Prob 17.3
R1  12080  R2   12092  R3   12104  R4   12116  R2 Prob 40.9  R4 Prob 14.3
Prj Lo   12016 Prob %  43.4  Prj Hi 12118  Prob %  47.5
5D EMA   12039       20D EMA   11932
Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS  IT OB       12080
Projected DIF Reversal Price   12079   Buy Prob%  42.2   Prob % Valid Buy 67.4

Pair    High    Low      Last    Change   Range  % Chg  Vty
EURJPY 15622   15550    15607       21      72    0.13  0.46
Support and Resistance  Levels
S1  15586  S2   15564  S3   15543  S4   15521  S2 Prob 38.4  S4 Prob 13.4
R1  15622  R2   15636  R3   15651  R4   15665  R2 Prob 51.1  R4 Prob 16.2
Prj Lo   15550 Prob %  37.0  Prj Hi 15657  Prob %  55.3
5D EMA   15575       20D EMA   15543
Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS  IT OB       15625
Projected DIF Reversal Price   15589   Sell Prob% 57.2   Prob % Valid 46.8

Pair    High    Low      Last    Change   Range  % Chg  Vty
USDCHF 12515   12424    12479        6      91    0.05  0.73
Support and Resistance  Levels
S1  12455  S2   12430  S3   12406  S4   12382  S2 Prob 34.4  S4 Prob 14.6
R1  12500  R2   12521  R3   12543  R4   12564  R2 Prob 33.1  R4 Prob 11.3
Prj Lo   12408 Prob %  35.0  Prj Hi 12554  Prob %  29.2
5D EMA   12468       20D EMA   12349
Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS  IT OB       12518
Projected DIF Reversal Price   12492   Buy Prob%  46.3   Prob % Valid Buy 63.4

Pair    High    Low      Last    Change   Range  % Chg  Vty
GBPUSD 19724   19603    19690       65     121    0.33  0.61
Support and Resistance  Levels
S1  19655  S2   19621  S3   19586  S4   19551  S2 Prob 31.7  S4 Prob 11.8
R1  19716  R2   19742  R3   19768  R4   19793  R2 Prob 37.7  R4 Prob 16.3
Prj Lo   19623 Prob %  36.4  Prj Hi 19754  Prob %  41.9
5D EMA   19602       20D EMA   19534
Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS  None            0
Projected DIF Reversal Price   19656   Sell Prob% 59.9   Prob % Valid 60.4

Pair    High    Low      Last    Change   Range  % Chg  Vty
USDCAD 11771   11726    11731      -35      45   -0.30  0.38
Support and Resistance  Levels
S1  11723  S2   11714  S3   11706  S4   11698  S2 Prob 36.7  S4 Prob 13.3
R1  11745  R2   11759  R3   11774  R4   11788  R2 Prob 32.3  R4 Prob 11.9
Prj Lo   11684 Prob %  41.4  Prj Hi 11770  Prob %  39.8
5D EMA   11730       20D EMA   11675
Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS  ST OS       11709
Projected DIF Reversal Price   11752   Buy Prob%  48.9   Prob % Valid Buy 65.1

EURUSD Projections for Wednesday

EURUSD High Low Last Change MBI DIF
70110 13005 12932 12937 0 89 -4
70111 13015 12883 12889 -48 85 -5
70112 12945 12865 12917 28 92 1
70115 12957 12916 12934 17 92 0
70115 12989 12909 12924 -10 93 0

Support and Resistance Levels
S1 12908 S2 12892 S3 12877 S4 12861 S2 Prob 45.0 S4 Prob 15.5
R1 12948 R2 12972 R3 12997 R4 13021 R2 Prob 48.5 R4 Prob 20.2
Prj Lo 12871 Prob % 45.8 Prj Hi 12973 Prob % 51.0
5D EMA 12939 20D EMA 13038

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS None 0
Projected Daily Reversal Price 12908
Sell Prob(%) 55.7 Valid Sell Prob (%) 53.8

Mkt Pos & Trading Bias: Bearish on rallies and reversals.
Mkt Influences: 0200 GER CPI 0500 EU CPI EU trade balance. 0830 US PPI 0900 TIC 0915 IndProd/CapUtil. 1300 NAHB housing idx Fed GovMishkin. 1400 Beige book. 1450 Fed Pres Yellen. Any could move mkt under current conditions/mood.
Buy Levels + stops/targets: none.
Sell Levels/Stops/Targets: 12908 downside reversal but on rallies to the 12972/12973 areaq (R2/PrH) look at sales w/stp above R4 at 13021.

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EURUSD Projections for Tuesday

EURUSD High Low Last Change MBI DIF
70110 13005 12932 12937 -64 88 -6
70110 13005 12932 12937 0 89 -4
70111 13015 12883 12889 -48 85 -5
70112 12945 12865 12917 28 92 1
70115 12957 12916 12934 17 92 0

Support and Resistance Levels
S1 12924 S2 12914 S3 12905 S4 12895 S2 Prob 37.7 S4 Prob 13.4
R1 12945 R2 12955 R3 12966 R4 12977 R2 Prob 36.1 R4 Prob 16.4
Prj Lo 12881 Prob % 44.0 Prj Hi 12983 Prob % 45.4
5D EMA 12947 20D EMA 13049

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS IT OS 12844
Projected Daily Reversal Price 12916
Sell Prob(%) 49.2 Valid Sell Prob (%) 55.8

Mkt Pos & Trading Bias: Neutral/ bearish. Key GER/EU data at 0500 in the form of ZEW. Looking for a possible reversal to the downside today after the two session bounce.
Mkt Influences: ZEW at 0500 ET and NY Empire index at 0830. No fed speakers scheduled.
Sell Levels/Stops/Targets: 12916 on a downside reversal but also consider sales in the R4/PrH range of 12977/12983.

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EURUSD Projections for Monday

EURUSD  High    Low      Last    Change   MBI    DIF
70109  13054   12990    13001      -19     93     -3
70110  13005   12932    12937      -64     88     -6
70110  13005   12932    12937        0     89     -4
70111  13015   12883    12889      -48     85     -5
70112  12945   12865    12917       28     92      1

Support and Resistance  Levels
S1  12895  S2   12873  S3   12851  S4   12829  S2 Prob 37.7  S4 Prob 13.4
R1  12935  R2   12953  R3   12971  R4   12989  R2 Prob 36.1  R4 Prob 16.4
Prj Lo   12864 Prob %  44.0  Prj Hi 12966  Prob %  45.4
5D EMA   12954       20D EMA   13062

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS              IT OS     12857
Projected Daily Reversal Price           12897
Sell Prob(%)  49.2   Valid Sell Prob (%) 55.8

Mkt Pos & Trading Bias: Comments Monday afternoon. NY closed Mon.

EURUSD projections for Friday

EURUSD  High    Low      Last    Change   MBI    DIF
70108  13036   12986    13020       10     92     -5
70109  13054   12990    13001      -19     93     -3
70110  13005   12932    12937      -64     88     -6
70110  13005   12932    12937        0     89     -4
70111  13015   12883    12889      -48     85     -5

Support and Resistance  Levels
S1  12866  S2   12843  S3   12820  S4   12797  S2 Prob 47.0  S4 Prob 19.1
R1  12932  R2   12975  R3   13018  R4   13061  R2 Prob 48.4  R4 Prob 21.0
Prj Lo   12836 Prob %  46.7  Prj Hi 12938  Prob %  53.6
5D EMA   12972       20D EMA   13077

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS              IT OS     12867
Projected Daily Reversal Price           12911
Buy Prob(%)  40.1    Valid Buy Prob (%)   67.1

Mkt Pos & Trading Bias: Neutral/bearish. Mildly IT/OS MBI and IT/ST OS RSI’s ahead of the weekend break makes a further sharp break today unlikely however with NY on a short day and Monday a bank holiday there could be fireworks.
Mkt Influences: FRA CPI and EZ LEI o/n followed by key event US retail sales 0830. Early bond close could thin trading further.
Buy Levels + stops/targets:  Inclined to not catch a falling knife but sub PrL to S4 (12836/12797) might be wprth playing.
Sell Levels/Stops/Targets: Any spike above 12938 approaching 12975 is worht looking at if seen.

EURUSD projections for Thursday

EURUSD  High    Low      Last    Change   MBI    DIF
70105  13106   12982    13010      -77     91     -8
70108  13036   12986    13020       10     92     -5
70109  13054   12990    13001      -19     93     -3
70110  13005   12932    12937      -64     88     -6
70110  13005   12932    12937        0     89     -4

Support and Resistance  Levels
S1  12924  S2   12911  S3   12898  S4   12885  S2 Prob 43.7  S4 Prob 16.1
R1  12961  R2   12984  R3   13008  R4   13031  R2 Prob 47.0  R4 Prob 20.8
Prj Lo   12884 Prob %  46.2  Prj Hi 12986  Prob %  52.5
5D EMA   13013       20D EMA   13097

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS              IT OS     12915
Projected Daily Reversal Price           12958
Buy Prob(%)  41.9    Valid Buy Prob (%)   68.9

Mkt Pos & Trading Bias: Bearish/neutral. ST/IT OS basis RSI. ECB meeting also in play today. Still looking to sell spikes higher.Expect 12900 test before the weekend break.

Mkt Influences: ECB @ 0745. Trichet 0830. No major US data today.

EURUSD Projections for Wednesday

EURUSD  High    Low      Last    Change   MBI    DIF
70103  13290   13147    13169     -104    103     -2
70104  13179   13074    13087      -82     97     -5
70105  13106   12982    13010      -77     91     -8
70108  13036   12986    13020       10     92     -5
70109  13054   12990    13001      -19     93     -3

Support and Resistance  Levels
S1  12989  S2   12976  S3   12964  S4   12951  S2 Prob 44.8  S4 Prob 15.3
R1  13021  R2   13040  R3   13060  R4   13079  R2 Prob 48.6  R4 Prob 20.2
Prj Lo   12948 Prob %  45.6  Prj Hi 13050  Prob %  51.1
5D EMA   13052       20D EMA   13113

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS              None          0
Projected Daily Reversal Price           13025
Buy Prob(%)  44.0    Valid Buy Prob (%)   69.6

Mkt Pos & Trading Bias: Neutral/IT bearish. Looks offered on rallies and very much so in US trading hours.
Mkt Influences: Major influences today will be US trade report 0830 and Chi Fed Pres Moskow at 1230. Mkt also waiting for ECB rate meeting and Trcohet presser Thurs.
Buy Levels + stops/targets:  Sell Levels/Stops/Targets: Once agian lokooing to sell rallies to PrH/R4 (13050/13080) area or on an uspide reversal failure. One caveat: 5 RSI very O/S at 3.

EURUSD Projections for Tuesday

EURUSD  High    Low      Last    Change   MBI    DIF
70102  13290   13192    13273       75    113      8
70103  13290   13147    13169     -104    103     -2
70104  13179   13074    13087      -82     97     -5
70105  13106   12982    13010      -77     91     -8
70108  13036   12986    13020       10     92     -5

Support and Resistance  Levels
S1  13006  S2   12992  S3   12978  S4   12964  S2 Prob 47.1  S4 Prob 23.3
R1  13031  R2   13042  R3   13053  R4   13064  R2 Prob 44.4  R4 Prob 21.4
Prj Lo   12967 Prob %  48.8  Prj Hi 13069  Prob %  46.0
5D EMA   13077       20D EMA   13125

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS              ST OS     12938
Projected Daily Reversal Price           13047
Buy Prob(%)  38.9    Valid Buy Prob (%)   76.1

Mkt Pos & Trading Bias: I/T bearish. N-S/T neutral. Still looking to sell rallies. ECB meeting Thurs.
has to be considered however.
Mkt Influences: O/N GER trade balance and ind prod. No US data but ECB meeting on rates Thurs. is in play as a factor.

EURUSD Projections for Monday

USDJPY High Low Last Change MBI DIF
61229 11918 11874 11907 15 125 0
70102 11907 11851 11884 -23 115 -7
70103 11968 11867 11938 54 123 0
70104 11952 11902 11908 -30 114 -6
70105 11910 11798 11860 -48 104 -11

Support and Resistance Levels
S1 11831 S2 11802 S3 11773 S4 11744 S2 Prob 40.3 S4 Prob 17.7
R1 11887 R2 11914 R3 11941 R4 11968 R2 Prob 40.9 R4 Prob 17.1
Prj Lo 11808 Prob % 40.1 Prj Hi 11910 Prob % 49.7
5D EMA 11890 20D EMA 11828

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS ST OS 11860
Projected Daily Reversal Price 11968
Buy Prob(%) 46.5 Valid Buy Prob (%) 75.9

Mkt Pos & Trading Bias: EURJPY High Low Last Change MBI DIF
61229 15722 15630 15715 77 116 6
70102 15792 15690 15776 61 124 9
70103 15806 15708 15722 -54 114 -1
70104 15733 15580 15586 -136 103 -8
70105 15586 15401 15430 -156 94 -12

Support and Resistance Levels
S1 15394 S2 15359 S3 15323 S4 15287 S2 Prob 39.2 S4 Prob 18.0
R1 15487 R2 15544 R3 15601 R4 15657 R2 Prob 41.7 R4 Prob 21.6
Prj Lo 15373 Prob % 39.6 Prj Hi 15480 Prob % 50.9
5D EMA 15584 20D EMA 15538

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS ST OS 15428
Projected Daily Reversal Price 15657
Buy Prob(%) 48.3 Valid Buy Prob (%) 60.0

Mkt Pos & Trading Bias:

EURUSD projections for Friday

EURUSD High Low Last Change MBI DIF
61228 13201 13106 13148 34 99 1
61229 13205 13137 13198 50 105 4
70102 13290 13192 13273 75 113 8
70103 13290 13147 13169 -104 103 -2
70104 13179 13074 13087 -82 97 -5

Support and Resistance Levels
S1 13067 S2 13048 S3 13028 S4 13008 S2 Prob 46.8 S4 Prob 18.9
R1 13120 R2 13153 R3 13186 R4 13218 R2 Prob 48.5 R4 Prob 21.1
Prj Lo 13034 Prob % 46.6 Prj Hi 13136 Prob % 53.7
5D EMA 13153 20D EMA 13150

Prj MBI/DIF OB/OS ST OS 13055
Projected Daily Reversal Price 13118
Buy Prob(%) 40.1 Valid Buy Prob (%) 67.1

Mkt Pos & Trading Bias: I/T bearish but cautious ahead of NFP at 0830. No OB/OS extremes.
EURJPY is also a factor.
Mkt Influences: EZ/GER reports between 0400/0500 in play. Then US NFP and components.
Difficult call given ADP/Monster weakness but mixed otherwise.
Buy Levels: On a reversal above daily price at 13118 today but with very tight stops. Possibly on an post-NFP
selloff to 13050 area.
Sell Levels: If 13153/13170 is seen watch for sellers and consider shorts here. Also on an upside reversal
failure at 13118.
Target Levels: Downside targetting 13050 near term. Next week the 12940/12960 range is possible.